By Jonah Gjertson, Senior Consultant at Blue & Co.
North American automotive manufacturing held steady through May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Looking at the numbers, Volkswagen, Subaru, Nissan, Stellantis, and Honda led the manufacturers (with production greater than 10,000 vehicles produced in the year-to-date period). Rivian, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Toyota, and Ford each had reduced production numbers when compared to the same period last year. We sampled the Automotive News North America car and truck production database and noted an increase of 41,968 units (0.7 percent) from the same period in 2025.
Nissan, Stellantis, and Subaru posted the most encouraging gains through the first four months of 2026. Nissan’s rebound is notable given the pressure the brand faced a year ago from dealers and consumers. The rebounded manufacturing suggests the brand is rebuilding North American capacity to capture market share and reflects a refreshed lineup of products.
Stellantis, which we previously reported absorbed one of the steepest declines a year earlier, reflects a refocusing on the brands and the models that are moving at dealerships. Subaru’s increase reflects steady demand for its core all-wheel-drive lineup and a product mix that combines off-road capabilities with the needs of families of four or more.
Toyota, General Motors, and Ford each pulled back output relative to the same period last year. For Toyota, the reduction in North American production may not be capturing the refreshed RAV4 production and their new models arriving at dealerships in 2027. General Motors, Rivian, Tesla, and Ford continue to wrestle with the cost of recalibrating their lineups around the pace of EV adoption, which has continued to cool from earlier projections.
Ford and General Motors continue their R&D for electric vehicles product class and point to the technology as the north star, but are increasing their internal combustion engine lineup to satisfy customer demand. Tesla and Rivian both have new mass-market models (Rivian R2 and Tesla Cybercab) which are expected to make deliveries in late 2026 or early 2027. Additionally, WardsAuto reports that Slate Auto has hopes of producing upwards of 150,000 units per year at its plant in Warsaw, Indiana.
Taken together, North American production appears to be stabilizing after a 4.1 percent decrease from 2024 to 2025. Production continues to shift toward vehicles moving through dealerships and away from those with excess inventory. For dealers, those tied to brands gaining momentum should see healthier inventory and steadier new-vehicle grosses, while those aligned with manufacturers pulling back will need to lean harder on fixed operations and a disciplined used-vehicle pipeline.
The midyear data reinforces that success in this market is less about the direction of the industry as a whole and more about being aligned with the right product at the right time.
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About Us
Jonah Gjertson, Senior Consultant with Blue & Co., is a seasoned professional with a background in corporate development and business valuation. From 2022 to 2025, he served as a Corporate Development Analyst at Gee Automotive Companies, where he contributed to strategic growth initiatives within the retail automotive sector. His experience spans equity evaluation, financial modeling, and strategic consulting, and he has been praised for his analytical rigor and collaborative leadership in both academic and professional settings.
